From Q4 China-Vietnam smartphone shipment changes, look at 2023 global market trends

In 2022, the global smartphone market continued to decline due to COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine conflict and other factors, which was called "the worst year for the mobile phone market in the past decade". Specifically, Q4s are typically strong, but 2022 is an exception.

Global smartphone shipments fell 17 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year earlier. Among them, China's smartphone shipments fell 15 percent in Q4 2022, and Vietnam's smartphone market size fell 30 percent year-on-year in Q4 2022.

Entering 2023, it is expected that the impact of the epidemic will continue to restrain consumer demand in the short term, and the impact will continue through the first half of 2023, and the situation may gradually improve in the second half of 2023.

Q4 The global smartphone market shrank by 17%

obal smartphone market shrank by 17%Smartphone vendors have been surviving in a difficult macroeconomic environment in 2022. The market had its worst fourth quarter in a decade and its worst full-year performance in a decade.

Global smartphone shipments fell 17 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Canalys. With full-year shipments down 11 percent to under 1.2 billion in 2022, it's easy to see how challenging the year was for all manufacturers.

Despite shrinking demand and supply chain problems in Zhengzhou, Apple regained the top spot in the fourth quarter and achieved its highest quarterly market share ever, at 25%. Samsung was the No. 2 vendor in the quarter with a 20 percent market share, but it was also the top vendor by shipments for the year. Xiaomi's market share fell to 11 percent in the fourth quarter, but it remained in third place, despite the impact of India. OPPO and vivo both made it into the top five, accounting for 10% and 8% of the market respectively.

Chinese smartphone shipments Q4 fell 15 %

After another double-digit decline in the fourth quarter of 2022, Chinese smartphone shipments declined for the fifth consecutive year, according to Counterpoint Research.

Shipments declined 15% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 14% for the full year. The coronavirus restrictions have dented consumer spending and delayed smartphone replacements, Counterpoint said.

With full liberalisation by the end of 2022, it predicts things could start to improve in the second quarter of 2023.

In Q4, Apple's market share was essentially flat at 23.7 percent, compared with 23 percent in Q4 2021, despite a 12 percent drop in shipments. vivo and OPPO both saw their shipments drop by 21 percent, with their market shares dropping by more than 1 percentage point to 17.2 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Honor's share was flat at 14.5 per cent, with shipments down 15 per cent. Xiaomi's share fell to 12.5%, with shipments down 19%.

Vietnam's smartphone market, Q4, fell 30 per cent year on year

It was the seventh consecutive year of decline for the market. TechInsights said the sharp decline was attributed to economic headwinds, with high inflation leading to lower consumer demand. For an export-oriented economy like Vietnam, the downward trend has been exacerbated by the pressures of the global recession and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While Vietnam is recovering from COVID-19, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has again affected its supplies.

In Q4 2022, Samsung, Apple and OPPO were the top three smartphone vendors in Vietnam, with market shares of 32%, 20% and 19%, respectively. With the exception of Apple, the top five smartphone vendors in the market all saw sales decline.

In 2022 Q4, Samsung recorded the lowest shipment volume in the last six quarters despite leading the market in Vietnam. Samsung's shipments fell 27 per cent from a year earlier. The Galaxy A series led shipments in the quarter.

Global smartphone shipments are expected to stabilize in 2023

TechInsights raised its 2023 smartphone shipment forecast in its latest report, taking into account the reopening of China, a slower Fed rate hike and a better-than-expected economic outlook in Europe.

Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline slightly in 2023, down 1 percent year on year, and grow 3 percent year on year in 2024. Global handset shipments will fall 4% year on year in 2023 and rebound to 2% year on year growth in 2024.

Regionally, all regions were revised upwards except Africa and the Middle East, which suffered from the catastrophic earthquake in and around Turkey and poor macroeconomic conditions. North America, however, will be the only region to see modest growth in 2023. All other regions will be in decline. By 2024, we expect all regions to be back in growth mode.

Samsung and Apple will continue to lead the market with increased market share. China's leading vendors will continue to face strong headwinds in 2023 before shifting to an upward trajectory in 2024. By 2023 and 2024, the top 10 global smartphone vendors will account for 92% of the global smartphone market. Consolidation continues.